US-Philippines Pact Deepens South China Sea Tensions

Washington’s Reassurance Visit Raises the Stakes in Disputed Waters

According to an op-ed published by The Maritime Executive, courtesy of The Lowy Interpreter and written by Manila-based columnist Richard Javad Heydarian, US Undersecretary of War Elbridge Colby’s recent visit to the Philippines has deepened a strategic bind for Manila even as it was intended to project American resolve in the South China Sea. The piece argues that while Colby’s trip produced reassuring rhetoric and a new joint coast guard patrol arrangement, it has done little to resolve the underlying pressures facing the Philippines as tensions with China escalate.

A “Model Ally” Caught Between Two Giants

Colby, speaking in Manila, praised the Philippines as a “model ally” pursuing pragmatic self-defense and met with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to announce joint Filipino-American coast guard patrols in the South China Sea, a direct response to what the op-ed describes as growing Chinese assertiveness in contested waters. The announcement was welcomed by much of the Philippine strategic establishment as confirmation of a century-old alliance.

Yet the op-ed contends this closeness comes at a cost. Leaning further into Washington’s orbit undercuts Manila’s broader narrative of self-reliance at home and strategic autonomy abroad, while also complicating diplomatic efforts already underway to cool tensions with Beijing. The author notes skepticism that the US is prepared to back its rhetoric with substantial material support.

Flashpoints: Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal

The timing of Colby’s visit followed an escalation in Chinese harassment of Philippine positions, including an incident at Second Thomas Shoal in which Philippine navy personnel were injured. Because Filipino troops maintain a permanent presence there, the op-ed notes the feature effectively falls under the Philippine-US mutual defense treaty. Separately, there are mounting concerns over reported Chinese construction activity at Scarborough Shoal, a feature within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

The article also points to broader strain stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which it says contributed to the Philippines’ slowest economic growth in decades outside the pandemic years, and to President Marcos’s earlier criticism of US military action in Iran as harmful to energy-dependent allies.

Promises Without Delivery

Despite the show of partnership, the op-ed highlights a pattern of unmet expectations: fresh US tariffs on Philippine exports over unverified labor-practice claims, stalled free trade agreement talks, and continued delays in transferring modern fighter jets to the Philippine Air Force. A separate US-backed critical minerals and semiconductor investment initiative has also drawn domestic criticism in the Philippines over concerns about the nature of the inbound investment.

The author’s central argument is that this combination of strong words and limited follow-through has emboldened hardliners within the Philippine government, including Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr., who has since been sanctioned by China, while undermining the efforts of Filipino diplomats working to de-escalate the standoff.

What It Means for Shipping and Maritime Operators

For vessel owners, operators, and charterers with trade routes running through the South China Sea, this geopolitical friction is not merely background noise. Expanded coast guard patrols, increased naval presence near contested shoals, and the prospect of further incidents at flashpoints like Second Thomas Shoal all raise the operational risk profile for commercial transits through the region. Vessels calling at Philippine ports or routing near disputed features may face greater scrutiny, unpredictable encounters with patrol craft, or rerouting pressure from charterers and insurers reassessing risk exposure.

This environment also underscores the value of rigorous, independent condition and cargo surveys for vessels operating in or near contested waters. Owners and managers should ensure documentation, including draft surveys and cargo hold inspections, is thorough and defensible, since any incident involving detention, inspection, or dispute in these waters can trigger insurance and charter-party complications that hinge on verified vessel condition and cargo state at the relevant time. As the op-ed makes clear, the underlying dispute shows no sign of near-term resolution, meaning elevated caution in this corridor is likely to persist.

Outlook

The op-ed concludes that the Trump administration has offered just enough reassurance to keep the Philippines aligned with Washington, without providing the substantive support needed to either deter Chinese pressure decisively or enable Manila to pursue meaningful engagement with Beijing. For now, the Marcos administration remains caught between two difficult paths, a dynamic that regional shipping stakeholders will need to monitor closely.