US Container Imports Hit Peak in September, NRF Says

Forecasts Keep Shifting as Import Volumes Stay Strong

According to a report by Maritime Executive, the National Retail Federation (NRF) has once again revised its projections for U.S. container import volumes, describing 2026 as one of the hardest years yet to forecast accurately. Having earlier predicted a pullback in cargo volumes, the NRF now expects September to be the peak month of the year and anticipates a modest overall rise in 2026 compared to 2025.

Jonathan Gold, NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, noted that the anticipated slowdown in peak season activity has not materialized. Consumer spending has stayed resilient despite tariffs, inflation, and elevated fuel costs, prompting retailers to keep replenishing inventories.

Revised Numbers Point to a Record Peak

The NRF’s Global Port Tracker now projects total September volumes of 2.31 million TEU across major U.S. container ports — well above earlier estimates that ranged as low as 2 million TEU, and higher than last month’s projection of 2.16 million TEU. May had previously been expected to be the year’s busiest month at 2.24 million TEU, but July surpassed that figure with 2.3 million TEU. August is expected to come in around 2.29 million TEU once finalized, making it the third-busiest month so far.

The NRF attributes part of the surge to vessel delays caused by severe weather in Asia, including typhoons disrupting operations at major Chinese ports, along with rerouting by carriers wary of Panama Canal restrictions tied to ongoing drought conditions. Despite headwinds like tariff hikes, inflation, and high fuel prices — all factors the NRF expected would dampen demand — import volumes have remained unexpectedly robust.

Port of Los Angeles Reports Sustained Momentum

The Port of Los Angeles echoed this trend, reporting that it handled 2.9 million TEU between June and August. August volume alone reached 955,907 TEU, six percent above the port’s five-year average. Executive Director Gene Seroka said the port is carrying strong momentum into September and the final months of the year.

A Slowdown Still Expected — Eventually

Despite the stronger-than-anticipated peak, the NRF maintains that a slowdown is on the horizon. It now forecasts October volumes will drop more than 2.1 percent month-over-month, though still up 1.7 percent year-over-year. November and December are expected to level off around 2 million TEU per month, with the softening trend extending into January 2027, when volumes are projected at 2.07 million TEU — a one percent decline compared to January 2026. Overall, however, the NRF now expects full-year 2026 volumes to rise one percent over 2025, reaching approximately 25.7 million TEU.

What This Means for Owners, Managers, and Charterers

The repeated upward revisions highlight just how difficult demand forecasting has become amid overlapping disruptions — tariff policy shifts, Asian port congestion, and Panama Canal drought restrictions all pulling volumes in different directions at once. For ship managers and charterers, this volatility reinforces the value of flexible scheduling and close coordination with terminals, since cargo flows are proving far less predictable than trade models suggest.

It also has knock-on implications for vessel condition and cargo integrity. Ships running at higher utilization for longer than expected face compressed turnaround times, which can squeeze the window available for routine cargo hold inspections, draft surveys, and condition checks between voyages. Owners keeping vessels in near-continuous service through an extended peak season should ensure survey and inspection schedules are not being quietly deferred to keep pace with cargo demand — a shortcut that can create bigger problems, and costs, further down the line.

Reviewed by Ibrahim Halil Ceylan, Marine Surveyor at Apeks Marine.