Hormuz Transits Drop as Dark Sailing, Spoofing Surge

Traffic Through Hormuz Slows Sharply After Renewed Attacks

According to a report by The Maritime Executive, transits through the Strait of Hormuz have not stopped following the latest round of Iranian attacks, but volumes have fallen sharply — particularly along the Southern Corridor that runs close to the Omani coast. U.S. Central Command maintains that the Strait remains open and that vessels continue to move through it, despite Iranian claims of control over the waterway.

Dark Transits and Spoofing on the Rise

Getting an accurate transit count has become harder because more ships are switching off their AIS transponders. Data intelligence provider AXSMarine reports that, outside of tankers, AIS-off transits have nearly doubled in the days following the renewed strikes. The firm also believes some gas carriers are still using the southern route while sailing dark.

Windward, another AI-driven maritime data firm, estimates that roughly 40 percent of all Hormuz traffic is currently dark — the highest proportion in six days. AXSMarine separately notes that AIS spoofing, which had eased over the previous two weeks, resumed on July 9.

Transit Numbers Fall for a Second Straight Day

Kpler data shows transit numbers dropping for a second consecutive day on July 9, down to 22 vessels from 30 the day before, with only one vessel believed to have used the Omani route. AXSMarine’s own count put combined two-way transits at around 20 vessels, with almost all of the traffic it tracked shifting toward the Iranian-controlled side of the Strait.

Windward reports the decline accelerating further, with just six vessels transiting overnight between July 9 and 10, and only a single outbound vessel — compared with 15 to 21 outbound vessels per night in the period before the renewed attacks.

CENTCOM pushed back on the narrative of Iranian control, stating that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz and noting that U.S. forces have helped move more than 800 commercial vessels and 380 million barrels of crude through the waterway since early May. The statement did not directly address the current drop in transit activity.

Fleet Trapped in the Gulf Shrinking, But Risk Remains

AXSMarine reports the number of vessels effectively trapped in the Persian Gulf has fallen to under 700, a decline of more than 370 vessels. That suggests roughly a third of the fleet caught in the region at the outset of the conflict is no longer detected there. However, AXSMarine cautions that a significant number of tankers and gas carriers remain in the Gulf.

Trade group INTERTANKO has warned members that the latest exchanges were more intense and geographically wider than earlier ceasefire breakdowns, and that the IMO’s proposed seafarer evacuation plan remains on hold, even as technical talks between the U.S. and Iran have resumed. Adding to the uncertainty, comments attributed to Donald Trump indicate the ceasefire is considered over, with speculation growing that Washington may move to reimpose a blockade on Iranian ports and shipping. TankerTrackers.com reported that Iran shipped out at least 10 million barrels of crude and fuel oil overnight, on top of an estimated 60 million barrels exported since the blockade was suspended in mid-June — leaving Iran potentially holding up to 50 million barrels if a blockade resumes.

What This Means for Owners, Managers, and Charterers

The combination of falling transit numbers, rising dark sailing, and resumed AIS spoofing creates a genuine data problem for anyone trying to assess risk in the Strait right now. When a meaningful share of traffic can’t be reliably tracked, insurers, charterers, and flag states are left relying on incomplete pictures to make decisions about routing, war-risk premiums, and crew safety. For technical managers with tonnage still transiting or laid up in the Gulf, this is exactly the kind of environment where independent, physical verification becomes more valuable rather than less — condition surveys, bunker quantity checks, and cargo documentation carried out by surveyors on the ground can confirm a vessel’s actual status when electronic tracking data is unreliable or deliberately obscured. Owners with ships currently idle or repositioning in the region should treat this period as a reminder to keep survey and inspection records current, since disputes over cargo condition, bunker stock, or vessel status become far harder to resolve after the fact if AIS gaps have already muddied the operational record.

Reviewed by Ibrahim Halil Ceylan, Marine Surveyor at Apeks Marine.