DNV: Efficiency, Not Green Fuels, Leads Shipping's GHG Fight

DNV Report Shifts Focus to Efficiency Amid Fuel Uncertainty

According to a report by Maritime Executive covering DNV’s annual Forecast to 2050, the delayed adoption of the IMO’s Net Zero Framework (NZF) has reshaped expectations for decarbonizing shipping. Rather than betting on a rapid transition to green fuels, DNV argues that the industry’s most dependable near-term strategy is squeezing more efficiency out of existing fleets.

Green Fuel Supply Outpaces Demand

The core problem, according to the report, is economics. Green-fuel production projects amounting to roughly 270 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) are targeting readiness by 2030, and around five percent of the global fleet can already burn alternative fuels. Yet DNV projects actual shipping demand for low-GHG fuels will only reach 4-22 Mtoe by that same year, climbing to a maximum of 33-185 Mtoe by mid-century. That leaves a large gap between planned supply and realistic uptake, largely because the cost structure doesn’t yet make switching attractive.

Much of the upper end of that demand range hinges on whether the NZF actually comes into force. The framework’s proposed penalty for non-compliant fuel use — starting at $380 per tonne of CO2 equivalent, or roughly $1,200 per tonne of bunker fuel — is steep enough to meaningfully push adoption. But the measure faces significant political resistance, notably from the United States, and its timeline remains unsettled. If it proceeds as currently drafted, it could take effect as soon as 2029; if renegotiated or replaced, implementation could slip to 2030-2033, compressing the window to meet the IMO’s 2050 target to as little as 17 years.

Timing, Not Just Scale, Matters for Fleet Planning

DNV points out that owners now need to weigh not only how big the regulatory shift will be, but how fast it will arrive. A framework that stalls or gets watered down presents a very different risk picture than one that moves ahead quickly, affecting the relative appeal of investing in conventional bunker-fueled ships versus dual-fuel newbuilds.

Efficiency Gains Deliver Results Under Any Scenario

While the fate of green fuel adoption remains murky, DNV highlights a set of efficiency measures — hydrodynamic hull improvements, wind-assisted propulsion, and engine derating — that can lower emissions and cut costs regardless of how the regulatory picture evolves. The report estimates that efficiency upgrades combined with slower steaming could reduce shipping emissions by 16 percent by 2030 and up to 25 percent by 2050, delivering roughly half of the IMO’s overall GHG reduction target purely through reduced fuel burn. DNV also estimates these measures could save the industry more than $20 billion annually in bunker costs.

The catch, DNV notes, is the split-incentive problem: efficiency retrofits require upfront capital from owners, but fuel cost savings typically accrue to charterers who pay the bunker bills. Making the investment case work often depends on contractual arrangements that let owners recoup a share of those fuel savings.

DNV Maritime CEO Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria said reducing energy use lowers emissions, cuts costs, and improves the economics of running on costlier low-GHG fuels down the line, calling it one of the few decisions that pays off under nearly any future scenario while also building resilience against volatile energy markets and geopolitics.

What This Means for Owners and Surveyors

For ship owners and technical managers, this reinforces that near-term decarbonization gains are more likely to come from operational and mechanical efficiency than from fuel switching, at least until the NZF’s fate is clarified. That puts a premium on accurate baseline data — hull condition, engine performance, and actual fuel consumption trends — to identify where efficiency investments will pay off fastest. Independent condition surveys and bunker quantity surveys become increasingly valuable tools in this context, giving owners verified data to negotiate charter clauses that share fuel-saving benefits, and to demonstrate compliance progress regardless of which regulatory timeline ultimately prevails. As the NZF’s implementation date remains a moving target, owners who invest in efficiency now, backed by solid survey data, position themselves to benefit under virtually any future compliance regime.

Reviewed by Ibrahim Halil Ceylan, Marine Surveyor at Apeks Marine.